The newest Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center (4/25-30, likely voters) is out. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
The Senate race (February in parens):
Jeanne Shaheen (D): 52 (54)
John Sununu (R-inc): 40 (37)
Undecided: 7 (7)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
NH-01:
Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 39
Jeb Bradley (R): 45
Undecided: 13Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 43
John Stephen (R): 35
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±6%)
NH-02:
Paul Hodes (D-inc): 51
Bob Clegg (R): 24
Undecided: 23Paul Hodes (D-inc): 52
Jennifer Horn (R): 25
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±6%)
The margin of error may be quite high, and while the GSP has not always had the greatest track record, the results do confirm that Shea-Porter is in a much tougher spot than Hodes is.
It has 89% of repubs for Bradley and only 74% of dems for Shea-Porter. It also has nearly all undecideds as being indy or dem. Even an internal republican poll wouldn’t be THAT optimistic for Bradley.
thought shea-porter was going to win from the get go.
The poll for NH – 01 is depressing but it does not surprise me. Shea-Porter won two years ago in a big year for democrats, especially in NH. However, since then she has not raised much money nor has she done a lot of visible things in the district.
She needs to step it up. We should not be picking up R+10 seats and have to be worrying about an R+1 seat in a state sharply trending blue.
Come on people, don’t take one poll from a not-so reliable pollster so seriously. All you have to do is look at the poll crosstabs to realize it’s a BS poll. Carol will win this race comfortably, high single digits or more. I have friends in NH and from what they tell me the state isn’t about to up and go back republican this year after the 2006 landslide in that state. Bradley was a straight-line Bush supporter in a state that nowaday despises Bush, a fact the voters up there have not forgotten.